Nick Denton, founder of new media publisher Gawker Media, makes a detailed case for why things are likely to get much, much worse for both traditional and online media outlets. He has compiled a variety of statistics based on historical data and others’ analysis in order to bolster his argument.
In his blog post, Denton also presents his advice to other publishers on how to survive the downturn. But first he takes a whack at estimating the overall advertising impact:
We should be so lucky. These supposedly brutal layoffs at Time and other titles amount to only 6% of headcount at the bloated Time Warner magazine group. Other media groups such as the New York Times and Conde Nast–a hiring freeze, how callous!–are being even more squeamish. From conglomerates to internet ventures, executives should be planning now on a decline of up to 40% in advertising spending during this cycle. Instead they’re sleepwalking into economic extinction–even those lean online ventures which were supposed to take up the mantle and preserve New York’s position as a media capital.
